Regional Trend though 2035

Population & Economic Forecasts

Local level projections for population, housing and employment were adopted in April, 2011 by the Mid Ohio Regional Planning Commission’s Metropolitan Planning Organization for use in the 2012 Metropolitan Transportation Plan. They include base year data from 2010, and forecasted information for 2035.

Looking Back 2000 - 2010

From 2000 through 2010, the area added 188,000 people, but overall job growth was basically flat.  While 28,000 new jobs were created in Delaware County, Franklin County lost 27,000 jobs.  In most cities, population, households and jobs have increased between 2000 and 2010, however the story is different for villages and townships.

Looking Forward 2010 - 2035

According to projections developed by the state of Ohio’s Department of Development, central Ohio is projected to add 460,000 people over the next 25 years, and we will need to add 240,000 jobs to maintain a 5 percent unemployment rate.  Where this population and job growth will occur was forecasted based on local land use plans and using an allocation model that includes criteria that determine the attractiveness of areas for growth.

Details of the forecasts and the data that were used in the allocation model can be viewed by clicking on the links below.

• 2010 Base Year and 2035 Projections By Community
• Interactive Map of Population and Economic Forecasts
• Interactive Map of Existing and Future Land use by grid

How was the land use model used to develop the forecasts?

In order to determine future transportation capacity needs associated with the development of the 2012 Metropolitan Transportation Plan, MORPC developed future population, housing and employment projections. The horizon year for the projections is 2035.

The starting point for these projections is the 2010 Census. Projections are made using information from local plans regarding land use. The current and future land use information is translated into standard categories and assigned to a quarter mile by quarter mile square grid. Each grid is approximately 40 acres. (The standard categories were developed with input from a technical advisory group that participated in the Regional Connections project in 2003 that included land use planners and engineers.) The categories include agricultural, various scales of retail, office, various type of industrial, various public uses, various densities of residential, and mixed uses. Each land use category includes a maximum amount of development, including households or jobs. 

MORPC uses a land use model that distributes future households and employment into the grids.  New housing and jobs are distributed by assigning a score to each grid based on weighted criteria including expected land use, environmental sensitivity, access to infrastructure, and economic development incentives. The scores of the grids are determined using GIS. (Weights are assigned to the criteria with input from an advisory group that includes representatives from the transportation, land use planning, development, and environmental communities.) Because the attractiveness of development for residential uses differs from the attractiveness of non-residential uses, two sets of weights are assigned, with one set for residential and one for non-residential development. Development is then allocated into the grids through the model based on their attractiveness until the county level control totals for jobs and households are reached. Please note that the control total for households and employment in each county is determined by population projections provided by the Ohio Department of Development (ODOD).

Congestion Report

MORPC maintains a travel demand model. Using the above 2035 population and employment forecasts the model identifies future congestion issues. This helps prioritize potential transportation projects to address future needs.

• Congestion 2010
• Congestion 2035

Financial Estimates

In order to implement its strategies and projects, the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) must demonstrate a reasonable expectation of funding through 2035. Such considerations include funding available to operate, maintain, and expand the transportation system. Read the draft forecasts of funding for more information. General information is available below.

General Financial Estimation Assumptions:

• Roadways: Approximately $5 billion available. This estimate is primarily based on continuation of historic trends. This represents approximately ј the value of projects considered for evaluation.
• Transit: Continuation of existing funding levels based on information provided by COTA and other transit agencies
• Bicycle/Pedestrian: Will use estimates of local funding for bike and pedestrian facilities, and will be included as line item estimates for studies, certain programs, projects related to airports, rail and safety.